Pandemic's effect on scientists may be long lasting, study finds

More than a year and a half into the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community is still feeling the effects of this extremely disruptive event - and may do so for many years to come.

A new study conducted by Northwestern University found that, while researcher productivity levels have mostly returned to pre-pandemic highs, scientists who did not pursue COVID-19-related research initiated 36% fewer new projects in 2020 compared to 2019. This dramatic drop in new projects suggests that the pandemic's impact on science may be more long-lasting than commonly imagined.

"On the surface, it looks like researchers are as productive as before," said Dashun Wang of Northwestern, who led the study. "But instead of generating new directions, they are busy working on established topics, writing up existing research, reviving legacy projects or revisiting old data. We found this to be true across many scientific disciplines - no field was immune to the reduction in projects."

The researchers also found that the decline in new projects was particularly pronounced for women and those caring for young children, which could exacerbate the already uneven effects of the pandemic on these groups.

The study will be published Tuesday (Oct. 26) in the journal Nature Communications.

Wang is a professor of management and organization in the Kellogg School of Management and of industrial engineering and management science in the McCormick School of Engineering. He is also director of the Center for Science of Science Innovation and a senior fellow at the Northwestern Institute for Complex Systems.

Impact may not be seen for years

The current study builds on work conducted by Wang in April 2020, in which he surveyed about 4,500 scientists in the U.S. and Europe about their productivity levels. Published in Nature Human Behavior in July 2020, the study found that scientists, such as biologists and chemists, who rely on laboratories to conduct their research experienced a more drastic decline in research hours worked compared to scientists in fields that require less equipment, such as mathematics, statistics, and economics. In addition, researchers with children aged five or younger experienced a 17% decrease in research hours compared to researchers working in similar fields but without young children.

With vaccine development well underway and the end of the pandemic potentially in sight, Wang and his team resumed their work in January 2021. They surveyed nearly 7,000 U.S.- and Europe-based principal investigators and analyzed the Dimensions database, the largest research dataset in the world.

In the new survey, Wang and his team asked the same questions about productivity as well as new questions about overall research activity and outcomes, including the number of new research publications, new submissions, new collaborations, and new research projects initiated before and during the pandemic.

Although researchers pursuing COVID-19-related work initiated approximately the same number of new projects in 2019 as in 2020, researchers conducting non-COVID-19-related work experienced a significant decrease. These researchers reported that they typically initiated about three new projects per year, which dropped to two new projects in 2020. The rate of new co-authors on non-COVID-19 papers also decreased by 5%.

"During the initial phase of the pandemic, scientists reported a sharp decline in time spent on research," Wang said. "These productivity levels have recovered, which suggests some optimism. However, given the long gestation time for new research ideas to mature and be published, the decline in new projects suggests that the impact of the pandemic may not show up in the publication record for years."

Face-to-face interactions spark new ideas

Wang believes this work highlights the importance of face-to-face interactions and collaborations, which are often important channels for new ideas. He says the findings could contribute to ongoing policy discussions aimed at encouraging social interactions, facilitating new collaborations, and resuming in-person activities.

"As a researcher myself, I often meet new collaborators at conferences and dinners," Wang said. "I generate new ideas at coffee chats, exchanging ideas with colleagues. These interactions didn't happen as often during the pandemic."

But even if campuses and labs reopen, Wang warns that life will remain difficult for researchers with young children. While many institutions implemented policies, such as extended tenure, to help parents and caregivers in the early days of the pandemic, parents of young children continue to need support. Until children can be vaccinated, parents generally remain cautious-often forgoing travel and in-person events-to protect their children.

"Many institutions evaluate short-term data to inform their reopening policies," Wang said. "Yet these short-term measures can mask the long-term effects of the pandemic. Children under 12 years of age are still not eligible for vaccines, which has additional implications for scientists with young children. At the same time, our results also suggest that short-term investments, such as child care assistance, can produce long-term benefits."